While not as subdued as is sometimes the case, August still saw a downshift in FX volatility, coinciding with the summer holiday period across much of the world. This fact, along with the limited catalysts on offer last month, saw us making minimal changes to our prior forecasts, a call that worked out well across most major currency pairs. Looking ahead, we expect that September will see a pickup in price action as traders return to the office. A busier calendar of events should also bring with it a new set of tests for the macroeconomic expectations underpinning our currency projections. That all being said, having seen little to change our key views through August, we are largely rolling forward our forecasts once again – with most of the changes to our September projections marking-to-market short-run expectations.
Read our September 2025 FX Forecasts here:
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Authors:
Nick Rees, Head of Macro Research
Barry van der Laan, Senior FX Market Strategist