News & analysis

At eleven successive days and counting, the current rally in USDCHF is the longest since 1975 according to Bloomberg. However, with the SNB likely to intervene in markets to prevent EURCHF breaking above 0.97 and the decline in EURUSD likely to meet resistance at the 1.05 handle, the unimpaired rally in USDCHF is likely to end soon. In fact, under our base case that SNB intervention will likely result in EURCHF trading within the current 0.95-0.97 range for the remainder of this year and EURUSD unlikely to break towards or through parity without the emergence of a pronounced recession in the eurozone, we think it is unlikely that USDCHF will generate fresh year-to-date highs.

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Author: 

Simon Harvey, Head of FX Analysis

 

 

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