News & analysis

There have been three dominant themes for markets to trade year-to-date: US economic outperformance, monetary policy divergence, and geopolitical instability. Over the course of Q1, these all culminated in sustained dollar strength, and April was no different, leading the dollar DXY index to chart fresh five-month highs. However, similar to late-2023, the dollar’s valuations are starting to become an issue, not only for central bank policymakers outside of the US but also for dollar bulls, us included. While we think the dollar still has room to run on all of the aforementioned factors, we believe the pace of USD appreciation is likely to slow over the course of Q2 as investors and central banks remain wary of the byproducts of a stronger dollar.

You can read our May 2024 FX Forecasts report here:

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Authors:

Simon Harvey, Head of FX Analysis

Nick Rees, FX Market Analyst

María Marcos, FX Market Analyst

 

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