News & analysis

The key question for markets over summer will now be how long DM central banks can delay substantive easing. As such, while the elections might grab the newspaper headlines, central bank policy should remain in the market spotlight in June. Outside the US, the BoC and ECB should join the G10 easing club this month. The BoE, in contrast, looks set to keep policy on hold, as does the SNB, with both banks having seen June rate cut odds gutted in May. For most other DM central banks, high for longer should remain the mantra, with widening expected rate differentials likely to prove currency supportive as policy divergence across the G10 grows. Even so, the Fed is once again set to be centre of attention, with no rate cuts likely this month, leaving multiple avenues open for the dollar to stage a last-gasp rally, before the Fed ultimately joins the easing cycle.

You can read our June 2024 FX Forecasts report here:

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Authors:

Simon Harvey, Head of FX Analysis

Nick Rees, FX Market Analyst

María Marcos, FX Market Analyst

 

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