News & analysis

With just over half the year gone, our initial predictions for 2024 have held up. If anything, the themes we expected have proven more pronounced and more durable than our initial estimations. This has seen the start of the Fed’s easing cycle delayed until the back end of the year, while high for longer rates have meant policy divergence across G10 central banks has so far been less of a factor for FX markets than we anticipated back in January. Meanwhile, growth in China and Europe continues to prove anaemic and political risks have come to the fore over the past month. As such, with events unfolding broadly as expected, just a little slower, we have pushed back our expectation for the dollar’s decline, rather than deliver a complete overhaul in our forecasts. Finally, against this backdrop, the dollar smile continues to look narrow to us, reinforcing our view that for the time being, it is still too early to turn bearish on the greenback.

You can read our July 2024 FX Forecasts report here:

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Authors:

Simon Harvey, Head of FX Analysis

Nick Rees, FX Market Analyst

María Marcos, FX Market Analyst

 

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