News & analysis

A mild winter in Europe and earlier reopening in China prompted a broad rotation in capital flows at the start of the year, with currencies exposed to stronger growth conditions and subject to higher interest rate carry leading gains against the dollar. However, the market’s repositioning has been quite aggressive to date, leading us to believe that the dollar is overdue a period of consolidation in the near-term. For this reason, after marking some of our forecasts to the prevailing spot rate, we have factored in a stabilisation in the broad dollar. Instead, we think conditions will be more ripe for a cleaner dollar sell-off in H2 2023. 

You can read our February 2023 FX Forecasts report here:




Simon Harvey, Head of FX Analysis

Jay Zhao-Murray, FX Market Analyst

María Marcos, FX Market Analyst

Nick Rees, FX Market Analyst


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