News & analysis

A mild winter in Europe and earlier reopening in China prompted a broad rotation in capital flows at the start of the year, with currencies exposed to stronger growth conditions and subject to higher interest rate carry leading gains against the dollar. However, the market’s repositioning has been quite aggressive to date, leading us to believe that the dollar is overdue a period of consolidation in the near-term. For this reason, after marking some of our forecasts to the prevailing spot rate, we have factored in a stabilisation in the broad dollar. Instead, we think conditions will be more ripe for a cleaner dollar sell-off in H2 2023. 

You can read our February 2023 FX Forecasts report here:

DOWNLOAD THE FULL REPORT

 

Authors:

Simon Harvey, Head of FX Analysis

Jay Zhao-Murray, FX Market Analyst

María Marcos, FX Market Analyst

Nick Rees, FX Market Analyst

 

Disclaimer
This information has been prepared by Monex Europe Limited, an execution-only service provider. The material is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is, or should be considered to be, financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by Monex Europe Limited or the author that any particular transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.