Monex’s July 2024 FX Forecasts

Monex’s July 2024 FX Forecasts

With just over half the year gone, our initial predictions for 2024 have held up. If anything, the themes we expected have proven more pronounced and more durable than our initial estimations. This has seen the start of the Fed’s easing cycle delayed until the...
Monex’s June 2024 FX Forecasts

Monex’s June 2024 FX Forecasts

The key question for markets over summer will now be how long DM central banks can delay substantive easing. As such, while the elections might grab the newspaper headlines, central bank policy should remain in the market spotlight in June. Outside the US, the BoC and...
Monex’s May 2024 FX Forecasts

Monex’s May 2024 FX Forecasts

There have been three dominant themes for markets to trade year-to-date: US economic outperformance, monetary policy divergence, and geopolitical instability. Over the course of Q1, these all culminated in sustained dollar strength, and April was no different, leading...
Monex’s April 2024 FX Forecasts

Monex’s April 2024 FX Forecasts

While markets focused on the delayed and synchronised start date of G10 monetary easing to keep most major currencies range bound in February, a repeat in March was always unlikely, with some economies already starting to show the effects of maintaining interest rates...
Monex’s March 2024 FX Forecasts

Monex’s March 2024 FX Forecasts

If January was the month where markets sobered up following a Christmas holiday blowout, February saw traders take a pause to assess the damage, with G10 FX pairs spending much of the month looking distinctly rangebound. This meant that only one of our two key macro...
Monex’s February 2024 FX Forecasts

Monex’s February 2024 FX Forecasts

Entering 2024, we were of the opinion that markets had gone too far, too quickly in pricing easing expectations for the Fed. Not only did this leave cross-asset pricing looking out of touch with economic reality, but it also left the dollar looking distinctly...