One more week of politics

One more week of politics

The week just gone was dominated by political risk. Markets started it by digesting the first round of French National Assembly results, while speculation swirled around the future of Joe Biden’s electoral viability, although UK elections later in the week proved a...
US labour market cools at a steady pace

US labour market cools at a steady pace

Today’s jobs report proved net neutral for dollar, and we suspect, for the FOMC. The headline nonfarm payrolls readings showed 206k jobs added in June, marginally above consensus estimates of 190k, even as technical factors such as survey windows provided downside...
The BoC remains on track for back-to-back cuts

The BoC remains on track for back-to-back cuts

The Labour Force Survey once again stands out as the best indicator of Canada’s underlying cyclical position, which is weak. Not only did the economy fail to add jobs in the aggregate in June, but the details of the report were also soft. Of the jobs that were added,...
A Labour landslide does little for sterling

A Labour landslide does little for sterling

Befitting their stable lead in the polls, the Labour party secured a landslide majority in yesterday’s General Election, winning 410 seats in the House of Commons, with just six constituencies left to declare. This gives Keir Starmer’s party a majority of 170 seats as...
Payrolls and competency to drive markets after muted UK election

Payrolls and competency to drive markets after muted UK election

USD The dollar extended its losses yesterday as local markets were closed for Independence Day. This morning, with Treasury markets reopening and yields drifting moderately lower, the dollar is once again trading under moderate pressure. Whether that persists or not...
Imported deflation to keep SNB leaning against a strong CHF

Imported deflation to keep SNB leaning against a strong CHF

The Swiss National Bank’s decision to cut rates for a second successive time in June was finely balanced. Ultimately, the strength of the franc tipped the scales, with the Bank noting continued weakness in domestic manufacturing and external conditions. Set against...